Transition OKC acts as a catalyst for Oklahoma City to "go local" to meet our energy, environment and economic challenges.  One major energy issue we face is the prospect of more expensive and harder-to-find oil.

In 2010, the United States military Joint Forces issued the "Joint Operating Environment" report which predicted that surplus oil production capacity could evaporate by 2012 and by 2015, we could face shortfalls of up to 10 million barrels per day.  Other reports from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the U.S. General Accountability Office had previously reached similar conclusions.

In 2005, the United States Department of Energy released the Hirsch report,

which warned that the United States is so dependent on oil for transportation, agriculture, and industry that a decline in world oil production will cause increased oil price volatility and severe economic, political, and social costs.

Like all cities in the United States, Oklahoma City depends on the energy provided by oil and fossil fuels to survive. Although oil will remain a valuable and necessary resource for years to come, Oklahoma City needs to prepare for a future where oil and fossil fuels become much more expensive.  As the Hirsch report warns, to fail to prepare is to risk serious consequences.

The Short Explanation

Every oilfield has a finite amount of oil. When the oil field is first tapped, oil production increases, then it peaks or plateaus, and finally it decreases. Oil-producing countries also reach maximum production and then their oil production declines. For example, oil production in the United States peaked in 1971. Even though we continued discovering and producing oil, production continued falling. Americans now have to import almost 66 percent of our oil. 

Two-thirds of the largest oil-producing countries have reached peak oil. Only a few countries can still grow production - for example, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait. Unfortunately,we can't be sure how much oil they have, because they don’t allow independent analysts to look at their data. 

 
Does this mean that we're running out of oil? 

No. We're not running out of oil - but the supply of easy-to-produce and cheap-to-extract oil is dwindling. Without a doubt, the world will continue finding and exploiting oil resources after oil production reaches the peak. However, new oil discoveries will not be enough to make up for a falling oil production rate projected at six percent per year. Because our economy and our current lifestyle are so extremely energy-intensive, the falling availability of oil, as well as price volatility, could cause major disruptions and difficulties in our lives. 

When will maximum oil production occur?

     
   "After 2015, easily accessible supplies of oil and gas probably will no longer keep up with demand... the world's current predicament limits our room to maneuver." 

 The food we eat today is produced by an energy-intense agricultural system. For every one calorie that we eat, there were ten energy calories used to get it - from the oil in the combines, harvesters, tractors, trucks, refrigeration, and in our cars as we go to get the food from the grocery store.

Oil is almost miraculously energy-dense. Just one single gallon of gas has the energy equivalent of a human person working 250-500 hours - or to put it another way, TWELVE forty-hour workweeks. There has never been another energy source that provides so much energy and which can be used for such a variety of purposes.

What about ethanol and renewable energy?

Here in the U.S., we have a fleet of 250 million cars and trucks, and we use over 20 million barrels of oil per day. Oil production after peak oil is reached is predicted to decline around six percent per year. That amount of energy is not going to be replaced by any combination of wind farms, solar panels and ethanol. The plain fact is that we will have to use less energy - a challenging task, but one which can be accomplished. 

Solar and wind energy do not provide the liquid fuels needed to run cars, trucks, tankers, trains, and planes. Although they could help power electric cars, currently only one-third of one percent of the cars in America today are electric. How are we going to afford to replace our entire fleet of 250 million vehicles with these electric hybrids?

Ethanol, in the United States, refers to corn ethanol. Corn ethanol has a poor energy gain. Compared to oil, burning corn ethanol produces about 90% less NET energy. 

There are no silver bullets, but there are a myriad set of approaches to systemic change:  redesigning our systems to need less energy - by meeting our needs locally in a resilient, healthy, sustainable way.